?

Log in

No account? Create an account
Good for Obama. Good for the Senate. But what's this fly in my… - CERisE's Testing for L

> Recent Entries
> Archive
> Friends
> Profile

November 5th, 2008


Previous Entry Share Next Entry
05:01 am
Good for Obama.

Good for the Senate.

But what's this fly in my ointment? Props 1A, 2, 3, 8, and 12 passed?!?!?!? Bonds aren't free money, people. =(

Friends -- I ask you:
What do you think is going to happen over the next 4 years?
What do you expect Obama's administration to accomplish?
Do you think the economy will right itself in the next 4 years?
What problems is Russia going to cause over the next 4 years?
Will the war in Iraq end in the next 4 years?
What about Afghanistan?
Do you expect politics to be less partisan over the next 4 years?
Will we be better off 4 years from now?

My responses follow in a comment.

(9 comments | Leave a comment)

Comments:


[User Picture]
From:jordan179
Date:November 5th, 2008 03:37 pm (UTC)
(Link)
What do you think is going to happen over the next 4 years?

Obama will discover that, as President, one cannot merely make promises tailored to one's audience, but must make decisions -- and his decisions are going to make a lot of his former supporters angry.

What do you expect Obama's administration to accomplish?

Raises in taxes, trade wars, diplomatic and foreign policy disasters, and serious reductions in personal freedoms. On the bright side, this should discredit the Democratic Left for a generation.

Do you think the economy will right itself in the next 4 years?

No, because Obama's tax hikes and trade wars will make this impossible. America has voted herself a Second Great Depression.

What problems is Russia going to cause over the next 4 years?

With Obama in office, Russia has a free hand to reconquer the former USSR and continue on its self-destructive path of feeding the very Islamist terrorists who ultimately want to destroy her. This will probaby not lead to a general European war, but it may spell the end of NATO. I will personally be amused watching the EU try to deal with the resurgent Russian menace alone.

Will the war in Iraq end in the next 4 years?

Obama's election will re-energize the Terrorists and give them hope for victory. Obama has promised to pull out of Iraq within a year and a half. If the Iraqi regime isn't strong enough to survive by then, Iraq will fall to the Terrorists -- and then begins the real dying of the Iraqi people, at the hands of the victors. See "Southeast Asia, late 1970's" for a guide.

It is also possible that Iraq will win over the Terrorists -- and then be invaded by a nuclear-capable Iran. Much would then depend on what Obama does in response. If he shrugs off Iraq as lost, Iraq will be lost, as Iraq can't beat both the guerillas and an Iranian invasion simultaneously. Again, the Iraqi people then begin their dying.

What about Afghanistan?

One of Obama's few hawkish promises is to defeat Al Qaeda and the Taliban, if necessary entering Pakistan against the will of the Pakistani government. This means that he is either going to have to renege on his promise, or if necessary go to war against Pakistan. It will be interesting to see which Obama does, and also interesting to see how he plans to reconcile this with his promised cuts in military spending, including a complete cessation of spending for ballistic missile defense ...

Do you expect politics to be less partisan over the next 4 years?

No, why would they be?

Will we be better off 4 years from now?

Of course not.


[User Picture]
From:testing4l
Date:November 6th, 2008 02:34 am (UTC)
(Link)
What do you see happening in terms of "trade wars"?
What rights do you expect to see taken away?
Do you expect foreign policy disasters other than failing to contain Russia's ambitions and giving Iraq over to the Islamists?
[User Picture]
From:jordan179
Date:November 6th, 2008 02:07 pm (UTC)
(Link)
What do you see happening in terms of "trade wars"?

Obama has specifically said that we need to "review" NAFTA (the North American Free Trade Agreement) and that we should impose tariffs to enforce "fair trade." Both these measures would hurt American consumers and foreign producers; because the countries most affected by "fair trade" are poor countries, it would hurt the foreign producers greatly. Now, first of all the countries we raise tariff walls against will probably retaliate in like wise, raising tariff walls of their own against us. Secondly, impoverishing the foreign producers means that they will have less dollars to buy our products. The result: a choking-off of international trade, and consequent bad effects on our economy. See "Smoot-Hawley Tariff" for a historical analogue.

What rights do you expect to see taken away?

The First Amendment would be greatly impaired by "hate speech" and "balance" laws. Obama is also very likely to try and reduce the protections of the Second Amendment.

Do you expect foreign policy disasters other than failing to contain Russia's ambitions and giving Iraq over to the Islamists?

Sure. To begin with, losing Iraq to the Islamists would put Iran in a position to dominate the whole Persian Gulf; the next war there would probably be in defense of another Gulf country (probably Kuwait or Saudi Arabia) and would probably require recapturing Iraq at some point anyway. This is if Iran doesn't just start a nuclear war with Israel.

Obama has also more or less committed himself to a hard line on Pakistan, while simultaneously committing himself to deep military cuts. Pakistan is a nuclear power with formidable armed forces: I think it's obvious how that policy combination could go very wrong.

Then there's Chavez in Venezuela, darling of the Left Democrats (Obama's base). The Russians are offering to sell him a nuclear reactor, which would put him in a position to develop nuclear weapons. How well would Obama defend America's interests against someone he probably thinks of as one of the "good guys?"

Looking weak in general emboldens all potential enemies. What about China -- will China feel that it can get away with an attack on Taiwan? Perhaps Libya will restart its nuclear weapons programs. Etc. etc.

If Obama doesn't hit the ground running with a fairly hard line internationally -- which seems improbable -- America's enemies are very likely to pile on him.

(Deleted comment)
[User Picture]
From:babe_of_beyazit
Date:November 9th, 2008 06:05 am (UTC)
(Link)
I think banning assault rifles might be a good idea, if for no other reason than that when the ban expired, the easy access to assault rifles fueled drug-traffic related murder across the border in Mexico and undoubtedly led to many lives lost. I understand the whole Second Amendment angle, but often wonder how far it goes (i.e. could a private citizen legally own nuclear warheads?)
[User Picture]
From:gemlikeflame
Date:November 5th, 2008 11:47 pm (UTC)
(Link)
While my feelings are actually not that dissimilar from jordan179's, I have to answer the last two questions with "yes."
[User Picture]
From:testing4l
Date:November 6th, 2008 02:27 am (UTC)
(Link)
Why?
[User Picture]
From:gemlikeflame
Date:November 6th, 2008 07:45 am (UTC)
(Link)
Basically, to put it bluntly, because people believe in him and perception is reality. I elaborate further in my journal, but that's basically what it boiled down to for me.
[User Picture]
From:comatosedreamer
Date:November 6th, 2008 12:33 am (UTC)
(Link)
I don't know jordan179, but reading his response makes me wonder if there is an alternate, parallel universe in which he inhabits that the things he foresees happening would be within the realm of plausibility.

Speaking from my socialist, British Commonwealth viewpoint, the moment the votes started being tallied and Obama's victory became clear, there was a collective sigh of relief. America had given itself another shot at being a hero, rather than a villain.
[User Picture]
From:testing4l
Date:November 6th, 2008 02:27 am (UTC)
(Link)
America's a big place -- and we occupy all of it unlike you guys in the 51st state. ; )

At times, it's pleasing to know we do the same with perspectives. That's ultimately what I'm interested in. I really want to know what people think and I want them to look back on it in 4 years and learn about the impermanence of political opinons.

I need to answer this for myself -- and I will do shortly.

> Go to Top
LiveJournal.com