Fashionable, but unable to tell fact from fiction (testing4l) wrote,
Fashionable, but unable to tell fact from fiction

testing4l: Ok, I have a fashion question to ask you.
theotherchicago: shoot
testing4l: Imagine for a moment that I grew one of those rings of facial hair that are ever so popular these days.
theotherchicago: the little goatee-rings?
testing4l: Yes. Precisely
theotherchicago: what about that?
testing4l: 1) Approximately how ridiculous would I look?
theotherchicago: pretty ridiculous
testing4l: 2) Approximately how would that affect my chances of eventually making out with you?
theotherchicago: ...
testing4l: That's actually a serious question 8)
theotherchicago: yes, my serious answer is a blank stare :P
testing4l: I can't quantify that! =(
testing4l: This requires a careful weighing of odds
theotherchicago: i don't believe in numbers!
testing4l: Also, it answers the question of whether chicks are more likely to dig me because of my boyish good looks or because of my willingness to embrace the ridiculous?
theotherchicago: hmm
theotherchicago: shrug
testing4l: If the latter, then I'll continue on to Green Arrow proportions
theotherchicago: green arrow is hot
theotherchicago: for what it's worth ;P
testing4l: Interesting. How would that affect my chances of making out with you?
theotherchicago: ...
testing4l: /me is noting this all down on a notepad.
testing4l: So, basically, I'm getting from you that facial hair is not a deciding factor on your decision to make out with me or not make out with me.
theotherchicago: pretty much
theotherchicago: though i don't particularly dig a shit-ton of it
testing4l: Anyway, at least part of the reason I'm asking you is because a girl I know is trying to coax me into growing a smidge o' beard.
theotherchicago: shrug
testing4l: and, while making out with her is awesome, it makes me wonder how that affects my chances with other girls.
testing4l: So, it's a calculated risk thing.
testing4l: I think the thing that worries me most about a blank stare is the ambiguity.
theotherchicago: hah
testing4l: The only way to truly breach the ambiguity is to actually *try*
testing4l: and, well, I suspect you have a nasty right cross for the poor bastard who does 8)
theotherchicago: indeed
testing4l: See -- and that just brings in a whole new expected value calculation.
testing4l: Ph is the probability you hit me. Pk is the probability you make out with me.
testing4l: Ph can be further subdivided. Pg is the probability that you hit me and I like it. Pb is the probability that you hit me and it hurts.
testing4l: Pg + Pb == Ph
testing4l: So, now I have to determine the relative good or badth of each outcome.
testing4l: Pk will have a relative goodth of 1.
testing4l: Pg will have a relative goodth of .3 -- not so much into the whole getting beaten up thing.
testing4l: Pb will have a relative goodth of -1.
testing4l: So, Pk + Pg * .3 - Pb yields an expected value.
testing4l: Assume Pk is .5
testing4l: Pg would be pretty low for the reasons already mentioned
testing4l: So, that'd be 1*.5 + .3*.00000000001 + -1*.499999999999
testing4l: That yields a positive expected value, but only barely.
testing4l: So that suggests that the next time I see you, I should actively try making out with you.
testing4l: But I have this intuition that Pb is actually much higher than I know and that Pk, correspondingly is low.
testing4l: (tell me, at this point, are you more creeeped out by this or amused?)
theotherchicago more creeped, honestly
testing4l: Hmm. That suggests a very low Pk.
testing4l: which means negative expected value.
testing4l: Which means that a blank stare could mean that you really want to make out with me, but mathematics forbids me from ever taking that chance.
testing4l: We'll be forever separated by numbers, dear theotherchicago. Estimations and margins of error grow ever wider to greaten the gap between us.
testing4l: If that isn't poetry, then I don't know what is. If you can't believe in numbers, then maybe, just maybe, you can believe in my narrative.
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