To that end, they provide three references immediately to independent studies. The GAO report specifies that the Iraqi government hasn't met resolutions during this time period. The NIE update says that there has been limited success and will continue to be as long as we continue committing troops, but that the Iraqi government isn't really getting their act together. Additionally, it says that handing things over to the Iraqi security forces will result in a rapid return to before the surge. The Jones report says that the Iraqi forces aren't able to hold their own, but they are showing signs of improvement, and may be able to after a year and a half. None of those really mention the surge or its failure, but rather the failure of the Iraqi government.
The other links suggest difficulty in getting unclassified numbers and make claims that the administration is picking the good numbers and running with them.
The ad also says: Most importantly, General Petraeus will not admit what everyone knows; Iraq is mired in an unwinnable religious civil war.
This statement is, in my opinion, bogus. Iraq was a serious mistake. It is not a mistake which cannot be fixed. The US military has grown much better at dealing with counterinsurgency since Vietnam, for example. I believe that if we continue to pour troops in, we can effectively police the state.
The reason I was against the surge and the reason I'm against the continued occupation of Iraq is that we have bigger fish to fry. We cannot continue devoting nearly the whole of our army in one nation of the world. Russia's made some moves which are reminiscent of the cold war. Iran has continued towards uranium enrichment with only the possibility of talks to make Iraq less of a mess to hold them back. North Korea has gone entirely unpunished for having detonated a nuclear device. Nothing ever came of China's attempt to blind one of our spy satellites. We need to open up our options again badly.
There's two ways to do that -- a massive draft and relieving troops in Iraq. Non-volunteer groups have been shown time and again to be less effective. Moreover, the American public is very much against it.
We have a responsibility to clean up the mess Bush made of Iraq, but we're long overdue to start working on real problems in the world. We need to pull people out of Iraq. Slowly, to be sure, but we can't afford a ten year wait. We need to continue working with elements of the former Soviet Union and worry about the nations which are actually producing weapons of mass destruction. We need to move back to provide a global stabilizing force with the deterrent of having the capability to deploy massive force.